Some basic observations from a basic person below.

What are some of the things needed for the virus to spread?

People:

There must be people to have human to human spread. Is it reasonable to expect the more people the more spread?

NYC stats:

Location	Total Pop	Pop Density	Total Positive
Greater NYC	8,126,455	27,000/sq mile	105,000

D.C. stats:

Location	Total Pop	Pop Density	Total Positive
Washington DC	705,000	11,500/sq mile	902

While it’s true that NYC has a much denser population (the number above is skewed even more by Stanton Island), the fact remains that both metro locations are quite densely populated. Why then does DC have less than 1% of the total positive cases as NYC? Does doubling the population density result directly in this type of discrepancy?

Conducive Climate:

NYC and DC are 300 miles apart. Both are basically coastal with no huge geographical impediments in between like mountain ranges or the like. Anecdotal, but the current temp and humidity vary between the two cities by 1 degree and 4% humidity.

Lack of Social Distancing:

DC started their stay at home order on 4/1. NYC 3/22. No idea how well it is being obeyed, but it seems reasonable to think that there is probably some similarity in the two citizenry’s reaction. DC started their order 9 days after NYC, which would lead one to think the virus would have spread more openly for over a week in the city with a fraction of the infections.

Survivability on surfaces:

Is there any way to understand the potential differences between the personal hygiene habits of two population centers? Would it be meaningful enough to produce the difference between 902 and 105,000?

Maybe it’s just testing? If it’s a difference in testing, why the even larger discrepancy in death rate? 3,565 to just 21.

There are strange situations like this all over. LA and Phoenix.

Phoenix still has golf courses and beauty salons open. LA (and CA) has been locked down for over two weeks. Pop density is 3,200/sq mi for Phoenix vs 8,000/sq mi for LA. The weather in LA and Phoenix was fairly close in March with Phoenix being 70’s/50’s and LA 60’s/50’s. Is this related to only population density? LA has denser population that is more strongly locked down. Phoenix has a less dense population that is not as strongly locked down.

Strange times.

As I watch the S&P fall like sharks from a Sharknado, I’m taking a pause from nervously listening to Bloomberg TV calmly report on market action after the media has largely been hyping Scary Virus for weeks now. My mind drifts to ideas about trust.

I’m happy to trust my life to an airline pilot I’ve never met who may vary well tell me that the enchiladas at Casa Bonita are to die for. Trust is a weird thing that seems to mix the subjective and objective appropriately. If another passenger loves Casa Bonita enchiladas, they may say, “Hey, this pilot REALLY knows his Mexican food!”. They will likely trust other food-based recommendations while they sit on a flight piloted by captain Enchilada over the Pacific even though Casa Bonita enchiladas are objectively dreadful; not unlike my decision to stay in the S&P over the weekend.

Trust is applied to everything. Take the matter of the election and the larger contrasts being drawn between the private sector and the Government. The right says, “Trust the Free Market!”. The left says, “Trust me!”. Problem is, I don’t trust either one of them and believe they are all mental defectives. The way I decide who to follow is to try and figure out who sucks least, or another way to put this is who I am required to TRUST the least.

In an effort to oversimplify the complex, I’ll write the following.

At their core, the left who espouse government expansion seem to want power. AOC plainly stated such a couple weeks back. People who pursue power scare me because to the degree they have power over me is the same degree I’m required to trust them. Furthermore, the decision to trust them is not one I make of my own volition, and instead is thrust upon me through their assumption of power. Now I know this isn’t entirely true as I have some say with free speech and my vote, but when realism kicks in, the person writing this is nothing but a tiny cog on a giant wheel.

At their core, the right who espouse increased ability of the free market to effect society seem to pursue money. This is a concept that I understand even though I don’t trust it. Just like I shouldn’t have trusted my thought that the S&P was going to push through that Friday dip. I might argue they want freedom, but the left would as well. Just in a different form which would muddle matters. This is not altruistic by any means either.

One could argue that Trump is inelegant, inarticulate, comical, a bit of a buffoon, and perhaps not too bright…and I would. I can’t argue that Sanders is the opposite of these things. In fact, he seems like a lunatic who sucks at using the basic functions on a calculator. Dude is baffled by 1^st grade math, but doesn’t let that stop him from spending money.

Given this choice, I have to go with the buffoon. Keep in mind, I also held the S&P through the weekend.

The start of a very pleasant morning is in the books. Waking up earlier than is required can be an excellent way to get your morning off on the right foot as it can, by function of being awake, allow more work and effort to be put into the day. Somehow it doesn’t feel natural to wake early and then sit in bed and watch tv. Could be wrong here, but not sure how.

Anyway, after waking and throwing some clothes on I went for a run. Nothing huge, just under 3 miles in the oppressive humidity of central Georgia. Muggy has been redefined. Not terribly comfortable to walk to the store in, but for running…amazing.

I decided to run across the Savanah river and noticed something you just don’t see in the Rocky Mountain west, and not talking about the amazing amount of water that would be called an ocean in Colorado.

History is an interesting thing. It is what it was and will be. It’s our perception of it that changes, and sometimes it changes for the good. It stands to reason that it also changes at times for the bad. How could someone argue that building an ability to think is any kind of focus in school these days? Civics classes have gone the way of music both to the detriment of students. Curiosity has been replaced in our culture by a pursuit of entertainment in a war on boredom. Don’t believe this? Find a line where people are waiting and try to notice anyone under the age of 50 that isn’t looking at that thing Steve Jobs has thrust upon us. In a culture like ours, I’m not sure we should look to monuments that remind us of our past and view them with any type of disdain. At this point, they are little more than reference. I saw not one Confederate soldier on my run standing at attention by this stone with 4 words engraved. I don’t know much about ole Jeff Davis other than the basics. I do know that I wouldn’t have spent any time thinking of the War of Northern Aggression today without running by these 4 words, and I would argue that’s kind of the point for these historical markers for however good and bad people are defined this week.

Those who don’t know history are doomed to… are doomed to… are doomed to…  I’m going to play Angry Birds now.

We’ve all heard the famous quote, “…but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” An interesting quip meant to call attention to how likely taxes will be in one’s future by attributing something as inevitable as death to be its equal. Also interesting is how much more time is spent by people thinking about and being concerned over taxes when death will absolutely one day knock at our door. In terms of impact, death may edge taxes by at least a nose.

I had a meeting at 9 AM today. My day was and still is planned out to the hour. Up early. Read my Bible. Noticed a police car race by me on my way to the gym. Solid cardio day followed by 20 minutes of lifting. Feeling good. Should have printed out the reports needed for the meeting last night, but I’ll still have time. Printing slow, time is running short. Crap. I’m going to be late. I rip the stack of documents from the printer tray and sprint out the door. Going to be a solid 12 minutes late for this important meeting. I couldn’t believe I let myself fall behind this early in the day. I pull up on an intersection that never has any traffic and see traffic backed up. I have zero time for this I think to myself as I quickly realize the speeding cop’s destination was this intersection where at least one person lost their life. A beautiful, warm, sunny Colorado morning. No doubt death was he farthest thing from the mind of the person now unable to hug their family, chill with friends, or perform any other tasks that may have been stacked up on their list. A tremendously sad scene, and a blow that has no doubt landed on many people this morning.

Death will come for us all. It is one of the few certainties in this life. Way more certain than taxes. When was the last time you thought about your death, your mortality? There is another certainty in life, and that is the saving Grace offered by Jesus Christ. If you are saved by the Blood of the Lamb, death holds no sting. It wields no power.

1 Corinthians 15:55-57

“Where, O death, is your victory?
    Where, O death, is your sting?”

The sting of death is sin, and the power of sin is the law. But thanks be to God! He gives us the victory through our Lord Jesus Christ.

I would humbly suggest that if you haven’t worked out what you believe because you need to get to work, or the gym, or this or that very important thing, maybe it would be worth a few minutes of your time. Work out through evidence, logic, and reason what your belief system is and through what lens you view the world.

In case you were wondering how that very important meeting went, it was fine.